Statistical Risk

When someone comes to me and want sot have "solid proof" that vaccinations are not safe, effective or really even needed I try to recall this information that I investigated for myself a while ago:

All numbers are estimated in the peaks years of illnesses prior to vaccines and antibiotics to help with complications. Based on easily found CDC reports from the early 20th century (1920ish)

What I found:
There are almost 700,000 people in the US diagnosed as autistic.

At it's peak, Pertussis killed 10,000 (population was approx. 107 million) a year, last year (2009 at the time) there were 39 deaths from pertussis. (current population ofi305 million) 

Diptheria at its peak killed 15,000 a year. There were 5 deaths last year. (I have since discovered some interesting info on this illness...)

Tetanus has a 5% death rate - in the 100 cases there are on average in the US each year.

That is right - For the chance of being one of the 50 people that die each year of these illnesses you risk your child's life to be altered, ruined or possibly ended forever.


If you catch measles your chance of dying from measles is less than .3% . Before the vaccine, 400-500 deaths occurred each year. 1000 people became disabled. THIS IS AT IT'S PEAK. (so your chances THEN was 1 in about 71,300 you would be effected permanently by the measles with death or side effects of the disease) Today the reports of measles cases is 64 with 54 being people who were not from the US. As far as was reported there were no deaths or last ill effects.


So add it all up - without vaccines your chance of dying from one of these diseases is 1 in over 3,050,000.

Chance of Autism: 1 in 80

And this does not include chances of adverse effects from vaccines such at allergic reactions, SIDS, and convulsions leading to death. (or other neurological and immunological disfunction)

IPV - polio - has been wiped out because of vaccinations. This vaccine is mostly obsolete and I don't believe it is even given at all. I imagine if there was an outbreak though it should be taken as the rate of becoming crippled from the disease is 20%. Again though, medical advancements in treatment might prevent this. However, it is very contagious.





Articles to consider in your personal vaccine research:

http://www.whale.to/vaccine/olmsted.html

http://www.ageofautism.com/2009/04/olmsted-on-autism-1-in-10000-amish.html

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20100819/Decline-in-SIDS-rate-contributes-to-overall-infant-mortality-reduction-in-New-Jersey.aspx?page=2

(((READ THIS ARTICLE WHICH SHOWS THE [what I believe is the] REAL REASON THE SIDS RATE FELL))))

http://www.biojobblog.com/2010/08/articles/rants-and-raves/are-you-kidding-me-new-jersey-childhood-vaccination-rates-are-among-the-lowest-in-the-us/

http://www.examiner.com/essex-county-conservative-in-newark/nj-parents-much-less-willing-to-vaccinate-their-children


Another fantastic article! 
http://www.cstnews.com/Code/VaccinationsPart1.html

a blogger with possibly some interesting info:http://www.vaccinemia.org/sids_crib_death.htm